Sixty days. Two ceasefires. And the only thing that's changed is that everyone now admits this isn't ending anytime soon.

Sixty days. Two ceasefires. And the only thing that's changed is that everyone now admits this isn't ending anytime soon.

The conflict has entered its 60th day in a 'no war, no talk' stalemate. Iran submitted a proposal two days ago offering to reopen the Strait first, with nuclear negotiations to follow. The US dismissed it. Pakistan — the official go-between — is now waiting for both sides to come back with something new. Meanwhile, the fighting never stopped, and the Strait remains closed.

War risk premiums have eased slightly from their peak but remain 12 to 32 times the peacetime rate — 3–8% of hull value per transit. In practical terms, that is millions of dollars per voyage for a large vessel. Insurers have added a new requirement: vessels must now secure Iranian permission before they can obtain coverage at all. That is not a negotiating position. That is a structural surrender of the insurance market to a belligerent state.

The operating context

Oil surged 3.7% on Tuesday. WTI closed at $99.93. Brent broke through $111. The market finally waking up to the reality that the Strait isn't reopening on a politician's deadline. WTI is now up over 50% since the war began. The World Bank warns that if the disruption persists through May, energy prices will surge 24% in 2026.

Aviation is facing a physical shortage of jet fuel, not just high prices. IATA confirmed Asia has been hit first, Europe is next. The EU energy commissioner has publicly called this an extremely severe crisis. European airlines are in self-preservation mode, slashing May and June schedules. Some carriers have pulled entire summer schedules.

Polyethylene prices in Europe have soared 70–80% since February. In China, polypropylene production is collapsing as plants shut down due to feedstock shortages. PCB prices jumped 40% in a single month. Goldman Sachs called it a structural shortage. The Asian manufacturing machine is grinding to a halt.

What changes the decision

Here is what that means for your four modes right now. Ocean: war risk insurance is 12–32 times peacetime, millions per voyage. The Cape reroute adds 10–14 days and $1.2M per VLCC. Over 600 vessels trapped. Even if the Strait reopened tomorrow, IEA says 8–12 weeks to clear the backlog. Your Q3 ocean budget is obsolete. Air: Lufthansa cancelled 20,000 flights. KLM grounded 160. Europe has weeks of jet fuel left. Asia–Middle East air cargo capacity is down 40–60%. Rates from South Asia to Europe are up 62%. This is not a peak. It's a structural collapse. Rail: trans-Caspian routes are at capacity, lead times stretched to 25+ days. Trucking: diesel up 41%, US retail diesel at $5.64 per gallon, the highest in two years in real terms.

Stop betting on a quick peace. The war has entered its new normal phase, and the market has not priced in the logistics reality.

I've been saying this for 20 years. The world moves faster than the systems built to manage it. Who's laughing now?

The practical implication

Predictive Intelligence. Human Insight. — Lars P.S. Pakistan is waiting for both sides to come back with a new proposal. Don't hold your breath. This war doesn't end with a handshake. It ends when one side runs out of money. At $100 oil, neither side is close. Reroute now.