Interactive model

Why airline capacity is the most mispriced resource in global commerce.

Capacity disappears at departure. An unfilled seat destroys its value permanently when the doors close.

28
60
76%
$450
Annual value destroyed$9,434,880

20,966 unsold capacity units expire across 1,456 departures.

Read the result.

The number is not a forecast. It is a prompt to inspect where perishable capacity is accepted as normal.

Timing is the economic variable.

The value is destroyed at departure, which means every useful intervention must happen before the doors close.

Network data changes the answer.

Real deployment requires lane-level demand, mix, yield, schedule and contribution data.

The method

Assumptions, stated.

The model multiplies scheduled departures by available capacity, applies a constant load factor, and values each unused unit at a constant amount. It deliberately excludes seasonality, cargo mix, directional imbalance, spill, rate variation, repositioning and network contribution. Those simplifications make the principle visible; they do not replace a network model.

Embed this model

Put perishability inside the conversation.

<iframe src="https://www.larswinkelbauer.com/capacity/" title="Airline capacity value destruction model by Lars Winkelbauer" width="100%" height="760" loading="lazy"></iframe>

Questions, answered

FAQ

What does this model show?

It shows how unsold capacity expires departure by departure and accumulates into annual destroyed value.

What assumptions does it make?

It simplifies departures, available capacity, load factor and value per unit into a transparent illustrative model.

Can I embed it?

Yes. Copy the iframe snippet and retain attribution to the model page.

What data would I need for my network?

Departure schedule, available capacity, flown load factor, revenue or contribution per unit and lane-level seasonality.