Day 245: Iran and Oman Cut Their Own Deal
Trump says a deal is close. Iran says it's cutting a separate deal with Oman. Ships are moving under new rules. And the U.S. is running low on certain munitions.
- Iran and Oman have reached a 60-day framework to reopen the Strait — entering ships near Iran, exiting near Oman, no fees initially — negotiated without U.S. participation.
- Iran is also preparing legislation to ban U.S.- and Israeli-linked ships and impose tolls of up to 7% on others after the 60-day window.
- Trump admits U.S. munitions are "relatively tight" a day after reports that Patriot interceptors are below 1,000 and THAAD around 250.
While Trump claims credit for negotiations, the real action is happening between Tehran and Muscat, without U.S. participation. Iran and Oman have reached an understanding on a 60-day framework to restore navigation: vessels entering the Persian Gulf would use a route close to Iran, vessels leaving would use a route close to Oman, and no transit fees or service charges would be imposed initially. After 60 days, ship movements would be unified into a central channel managed jointly by the two countries. But Iran is also preparing legislation to ban U.S.- and Israeli-linked ships from the Strait entirely and impose tolls of up to 7% on other vessels, with fines of 20% of cargo value for violations. Iranian state media says the two sides have already established coordinates for the new routes.
"Theatre diplomacy on loop"
Trump told reporters Thursday he is "involved" in the negotiations and that the war will end "pretty soon," claiming the Strait is "sort of open right now" and that Iran "can't go much longer." Iran's lead negotiator, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, dismissed the approach as "theatre diplomacy on loop" — bullying, broken promises, and fake news as leverage, in his framing. The gap between the two narratives could not be wider: Trump is claiming progress, Iran is framing the U.S. as irrelevant to the negotiations that actually matter.
“The U.S. is being sidelined in its own backyard.”
A CNN report this week revealed that U.S. air-defense inventories are critically depleted — Patriot interceptors below 1,000, THAAD around 250, with large-scale replenishment not expected until 2029. Pressed on the issue, Trump admitted: "We have certain types of munitions that are very powerful, that we have unlimited, virtual unlimited supply. We have others where it's a little bit tighter." He did not specify which. After more than five months of sustained operations, the strain on the U.S. war machine is now part of the public record — and part of the negotiating leverage Tehran is using. Oil has climbed above $83 a barrel on reports of new strikes near Qeshm Island, up 3-4% Thursday and another 1% Friday. The Iran-Oman agreement still needs approval from Iran's Supreme National Security Council and could be finalized within days. For now: ships are moving, but under rules the U.S. did not write and cannot enforce. This dispatch will be updated as the situation develops — see the full timeline or read our Chokepoint Economics framework for how to plan around conditions exactly like this one.