The 60-Day Stalemate. No End in Sight. Supply Chains Are Cracked.
At $100 oil, why would either side stop? The global supply chain isn't broken — it's being permanently rerouted around a closed waterway.
- The conflict has entered a "no war, no talk" stalemate. Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait first, with nuclear talks to follow, was dismissed by the US.
- Insurers now require Iranian permission before they'll issue coverage at all — a structural surrender of the insurance market to a belligerent state.
- WTI is up over 50% since the war began. IATA confirms Asia is facing a physical jet fuel shortage, not just high prices; Europe is next.
Sixty days. Two ceasefires. And the only thing that's changed is that everyone now admits this isn't ending anytime soon. The conflict has entered its 60th day in a "no war, no talk" stalemate. Iran submitted a proposal two days ago offering to reopen the Strait first, with nuclear negotiations to follow; the US dismissed it. Pakistan, the official go-between, is now waiting for both sides to come back with something new. Meanwhile, the fighting never stopped, and the Strait remains closed.
War risk premiums have eased slightly from their peak but remain 12 to 32 times the peacetime rate — 3-8% of hull value per transit, millions of dollars per voyage for a large vessel. Insurers have added a new requirement: vessels must now secure Iranian permission before they can obtain coverage at all. That is not a negotiating position. That is a structural surrender of the insurance market to a belligerent state. Oil surged 3.7% on Tuesday; WTI closed at $99.93, Brent broke through $111. WTI is now up over 50% since the war began, and the World Bank warns that if the disruption persists through May, energy prices will surge 24% in 2026.
“This war doesn't end with a handshake. It ends when one side runs out of money. At $100 oil, neither side is close.”
Aviation is facing a physical shortage of jet fuel, not just high prices. IATA confirmed Asia has been hit first, Europe is next; the EU energy commissioner has publicly called this an extremely severe crisis, and European airlines are slashing May and June schedules, with some carriers pulling entire summer schedules. Polyethylene prices in Europe have soared 70-80% since February. In China, polypropylene production is collapsing as plants shut down due to feedstock shortages; Goldman Sachs called it a structural shortage. Here's what that means for your four modes: ocean, war risk insurance is 12-32 times peacetime with over 600 vessels trapped and an 8-12 week backlog even if the Strait reopened tomorrow — your Q3 ocean budget is obsolete; air, Lufthansa cancelled 20,000 flights and KLM grounded 160, with Asia-Middle East capacity down 40-60%; rail, trans-Caspian routes are at capacity with lead times stretched to 25+ days; trucking, diesel is up 41%, at $5.64/gallon, the highest in real terms in two years. Stop betting on a quick peace — the market has not priced in the logistics reality, and the same asymmetry that Chokepoint Economics describes is only getting more entrenched with each week of delay.