Day 188: The U.S. Reimposes the Blockade | Lars Winkelbauer
Lars Winkelbauer
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Trade Policy & Geopolitics · Day 188 · 3 min read

Day 188: Trump Declares War, Imposes a 20% Strait Tax

The ceasefire is officially dead. The U.S. has reimposed a naval blockade, is charging a 20% cargo fee, and has launched a third night of strikes.

TL;DR
  • The U.S. has restored a full naval blockade on Iranian ports, effective immediately, and announced a 20% cargo fee on all goods transiting the Strait.
  • Iran struck two UAE oil tankers, the Mombasa and Al Bahiyah, with cruise missiles, killing one crew member and wounding eight.
  • Strait traffic collapsed 60% in a week — just 14 vessels transited on Sunday, down from 37 the week before. Oil surged over 9% to a one-month high.
Author: Lars Winkelbauer
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Trump has formally notified Congress that the U.S. has resumed military conflict against Iran, giving the Pentagon 60 more days to operate without congressional approval. The June memorandum, signed less than a month earlier, has been dismissed as a "test" Iran failed. CENTCOM restored the full naval blockade of Iran effective 4:00 PM ET on July 14, covering all vessels "regardless of flag" attempting to enter or exit Iranian ports, oil terminals, and coastal areas — non-compliant vessels "may be legally compelled with force." The U.S. currently has 19 Navy ships deployed in the northern Arabian Sea, including two carriers and more than 10 destroyers.

A 20% toll — from Washington, not Tehran

The bigger surprise: Trump announced the U.S. will charge 20% of the value of all cargo transiting the Strait, to reimburse Washington for "providing safety and security." Weeks earlier, Secretary of State Marco Rubio had argued there was "zero support" for tolls on an international waterway; the IMO maintains there is no legal basis for mandatory transit fees. Iran's foreign minister mocked the reversal on X, sarcastically agreeing that whoever secures the passage should be paid — "20 per cent is of course too much" — signaling Iran would charge less.

“The Strait has become uninsurable for all but the most desperate operators.”

Iran has retaliated across the region: IRGC drone and missile strikes on U.S. facilities in Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, and Oman, and cruise missile strikes on two UAE oil tankers, the Mombasa and Al Bahiyah, killing one crew member and wounding eight. Iran's Revolutionary Guards claim the vessels had switched off navigation systems and crossed a minefield after ignoring warnings. According to Kpler, only 14 vessels transited the Strait on Sunday — a 60% drop from 37 the prior week — and Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Administration has declared the waterway "impassable," while the U.S. insists it remains open. Brent surged to $84.98-$85.50 and WTI to $79.79, over 9% in a single day, the biggest one-day gain in years. Trump has also threatened to strike "Pickaxe Mountain," a suspected buried enrichment site near Natanz — putting Iran's nuclear program back at the center of the conflict that started it.

Key questions about Day 188 of the Hormuz crisis

What is the U.S. 20% Strait of Hormuz cargo tax?
A fee equal to 20% of the value of all cargo transiting the Strait, announced by Trump on July 14, 2026, alongside a reimposed U.S. naval blockade of Iran.
Did Iran attack tankers in the Strait?
Yes — Iranian cruise missiles hit the UAE tankers Mombasa and Al Bahiyah, killing one crew member and wounding eight.
How much did traffic fall after the blockade was reimposed?
A 60% drop in a single week, from 37 vessels to just 14 transits on the Sunday after the blockade took effect.

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Aviation and logistics strategist with twenty years of network leadership across Asia Pacific, including EVP & COO at Polar Air Cargo and VP Aviation at DHL Express Asia Pacific.
Next dispatch · Day 231
A Pause, and a New Front in the Red Sea →