Paper barrels are cheap. Physical barrels are worth fighting for. US-Israeli strikes on Iran have begun under Operation Epic Fury. Oil is spiking. Vessels are already pulling back. The global freight system just got a red line drawn through its most critical chokepoint.
On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched coordinated airstrikes on Iran under Operation Epic Fury.
Targets included military command centres, IRGC headquarters, ballistic missile sites, naval vessels, air defence capabilities, and leadership. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in the opening strikes — the result of months of joint US-Israeli operational deception that lured senior Iranian officials into the same locations. The US Central Command reported that 17 Iranian ships were destroyed within the first 72 hours. Iran responded immediately with missile and drone barrages on Israel, US military bases in the UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain, and energy infrastructure across the Gulf.
War risk insurance premiums for Strait of Hormuz transits had already moved in the days before the strikes — from 0.125% to between 0.2% and 0.4% of hull value. For a large crude carrier worth $100 million, that is a quarter of a million dollars in additional insurance cost for a single voyage. Within 48 hours of the strikes, major marine insurers pulled coverage entirely. The strait had effectively closed before Iran's IRGC navy had time to act.
This is the mechanism that most analysts are missing. The physical closure of the Strait will follow the commercial closure. Insurance closes chokepoints faster than missiles.
Brent crude surged 10–13% to around $80–82 per barrel by March 2. The IEA has characterised this as the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. 20% of global seaborne oil, 20% of global LNG, and feedstocks for a quarter of the world's plastic production run through a two-mile shipping corridor that is now, for all practical purposes, a war zone.
Maersk, CMA CGM, and Hapag-Lloyd have suspended transits. The Houthis have announced the resumption of Red Sea attacks, closing the alternative route simultaneously. The Cape of Good Hope reroute adds 10–14 days and roughly $1.2 million per VLCC. Every day the Strait stays closed, the backlog compounds.
I warned about this six weeks ago. I said watch the ship tracks, watch the mine-clearing vessels, watch the insurance premiums. Every one of those signals moved exactly as I described.
This is not a temporary spike. The question is not whether your supply chain will be affected. The question is whether you positioned before or after the red line was drawn.
Predictive Intelligence. Human Insight. — Lars P.S. Trump acknowledged before the strikes that the Joint Chiefs had warned him Iran would close the Strait. He dismissed it. The market is still catching up to what operators already know.
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