You can't manufacture without petrochemicals. And you can't fly without jet fuel. The ICIS Global Petrochemical Index just posted its steepest monthly surge since the index launched in 2000. European airlines are cutting summer schedules. The logistics crisis has gone global.
The energy story is moving faster than most executives are tracking.
The ICIS Global Petrochemical Index posted a 32.7% month-on-month surge in March 2026 — the steepest since the index launched in 2000. Northeast Asia led with a 42.6% jump, driven by an 88.6% spike in ethylene prices. This is the chemical that goes into polyethylene — the plastic in every car door, every food package, every medical device, every bottle of water you buy.
Approximately 50% of global polyethylene supply is now either directly offline or indirectly constrained through feedstock shortages. Around 19 million tonnes per year of Middle Eastern petrochemical capacity has been directly shut down. An additional 61 million tonnes per year is indirectly affected because naphtha feedstock from the Gulf feeds crackers across Asia and Europe. Dow CEO Jim Fitterling said it plainly: everything they have running is going flat out for the rest of the year. LyondellBasell declared force majeure on European polyolefin production. QatarEnergy declared force majeure on 77.4 million tonnes per year of LNG and petrochemicals. The Dow-Aramco Sadara joint venture in Saudi Arabia — 1.5 million tonnes per year of ethylene capacity — has shut down entirely.
PE prices have surged 50–80% in some markets within three weeks. European ethylene contracts settled at a record €450 per tonne increase for April — nearly double the previous record set after Russia invaded Ukraine. US producers are the only ones positioned to benefit. Everything else east of Suez is being compressed.
Now add aviation.
Jet fuel in North America has spiked 95% since the war began. European airlines are cutting May and June schedules to conserve fuel. The IEA, whose 32 member countries have released 400 million barrels from strategic reserves, has described this as the greatest global energy security challenge in history. The EU energy commissioner has publicly warned of an extremely severe crisis as jet fuel supplies run dry.
I've been in logistics long enough to know that the most dangerous moment in a supply chain crisis is not when things break. It's when executives keep telling themselves the disruption is temporary. Polyethylene up 80%. Jet fuel up 95%. European airlines cutting summer schedules. The word temporary no longer applies.
Build it into your numbers. The second quarter is already written.
Predictive Intelligence. Human Insight. — Lars P.S. In India, 80% of Gujarat's 850 detergent manufacturers have shut down. The government waived customs duties on 40 petrochemical products. This is what systemic collapse looks like at the supply chain level — not an event, but a cascade.
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